Friday, June 27, 2014

Chartology: A Potentially Wicked Drop In Interest Rates

I give Mr. Kimble crap (of which he is probably blissfully unaware) because he imputes some forecasting skill to long-term (multi-decadal) charts.
And then he comes up with something like this, which answers the unasked question: "So why do you keep linking to KCS?"

One of the things nagging at the reptile brain the last couple weeks has been the query: "What has put a bid under gold?".
A drop in 10-year interest rates to 2% (real rate negative), itself caused by a rally in bonds, would be one possible explanation.
2.5340% last, up 0.0090%

From Kimble Charting Solutions:
10-year yield could fall 20% if this breaks, says Joe Friday!

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/joefriday10yryldonnecklinesupportjune27.jpg
The yield on the 10-year note and 30-year bell weather bond look to be creating head & shoulders tops. The 30-year yield (right chart) looks to have broken its neckline and continues to decline inside of a falling channel since the start of 2014.

The yield on the 10-year note now looks to be testing its neckline of the bearish pattern right now, as it too remains inside of a falling channel since the start of the year.

TLT is up over 10% this year, if support breaks it could push TLT a good deal higher in short order, if the head & shoulders top is a correct read....MORE
The pattern on the right bears some resemblance to the 28 step Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern:

 
But personally I'm getting more of a Palais des Beaux-Arts de Lille vibe.

File:Lille palais des beaux arts.jpg

Or maybe a Mansard, Second Empire perhaps:
Chart forCBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX)