Friday, December 28, 2012

Bridgewater's Ray Dalio: "Long Australian Agricultural Property Now, Short Bonds … Sometime in 2013"

The Aussies are getting downright cranky about foreigners buying their farmland so if you are planning to own the asset, sooner is probably better than later.
From Hedge Fund Letters:
In New York Time’s Dealbook conference in NYC, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund with assets hovering around 140 billion dollars, sat in a panel to briefly talk about the macro picture and investment opportunities.

As per his earlier view, the global economy still is in the midst of the Great Deleveraging (a phrase he coined himself).

While most of risk premium in any assets has virtually disappeared, he sees some current opportunities where risk premiums still can be squeezed and others in the horizon (but not imminent).
On the opportunity where risk premium has not been completely squeezed out today, Mr. Dalio recommends Australian Agricultural Properties. He does not mention any others.

As for the best upcoming investment, he predicts that interest rates (which are currently negative in terms of real returns) will rise towards the end of 2013 and “The biggest opportunity will be shorting bond markets around the world”....MORE
A look into the link-vault turns up:

Dec. 12 Agrimoney
Swedish fund stokes Australia farm-buying spree
A Swedish pension fund has become the latest of a series of purchasers of Australian farmland, a buying spree which has fuelled public concerns, and raised discussion over curbs on foreign ownership....
Oct. 28 Reuters
Analysis: What's eating Australia? Foreign buyers at the farm gate

And just this morning Crikey posted a nice interactive map of purchasers and purchases:
Foreign ownership of Australian farmland