Sunday, November 25, 2012

"7 economic nightmares for Obama's 2nd term"

From CBS News:

The rise of extremism

A petrol bomb thrown by protesters explodes near riot police in front of parliament on Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2012, during clashes in Athens, Greece.
A petrol bomb thrown by protesters explodes near riot police in front of parliament on Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2012, during clashes in Athens, Greece. / AP Photo/Dimitri Messinis 

There hasn't been a war between the major powers of Europe since the end of World War II nearly 70 years ago. The EU is definitely responsible for that, which is why it was awarded this year's Nobel Peace Prize. Economic chaos in the 1920s and '30s allowed extremist groups to seize power and eventually led to World War II. Bill McBride, who writes the blog CalculatedRisk, sees some unnerving similarities in what is happening today.

"You can't keep people in recession year after year like this," says McBride. "In Greece and Spain the unemployment rate for 18-to-34 year olds is over 50 percent. The last thing you want is a lot of 18-to-34 year olds sitting around with nothing to do."

This is a very similar situation to the one Europe confronted in the 1930s when people lost faith in their governments and turned to extremist groups for answers. McBride points to Greece, where the far-right Golden Dawn and Coalition of the Radical Left parties have both been gaining power.

"Look at Golden Dawn -- a year ago no one outside of Greece had heard of them. Inside Greece they were considered a joke. Not anymore. Golden Dawn is growing stronger every year."

He adds, "It could come from the Left or the Right. The Left would repudiate the debts and put in a more socialist government. The Right would be more socialist and anti-immigrant."...MORE
That was number 5 of the seven, here's the start of the slideshow.
HT: Mish who contributed one of the scenarios.

Regarding the rise of the extremists we've had a few posts:

In "Oh Great, Here Come the Nazis (Greece's Golden Dawn Party Now at 22%)" we showed that Golden Dawn was ahead of where the Nazis were at the same stage of development (and that it was the deflation not the inflation that doomed Wiemar)

And "Greek Far Right Makes Gains, Demands Landmines on Borders".
Last January it was "Ha! "Hungary's hard-pressed workforce struggles with unaffordable mortgages"
*From last Wednesday's Hungary: "A Magyar martingale":

I dropped a comment on MarketBeat's post, "Hungarian Forint Hits New Lows, as Austria Watches Nervously":
Zo, your Hungarian mortgage is denominated in euros at Austria’s Creditanstalt?* Und your income is in forints?
You can’t work enough hours to cover the debt.
Keep an eye peeled for the Jobbik party goons....
Beat 'em by three days.
Man oh mandingo,  if only we cared about anything but the money...
[what? you could do human interest stories? -ed
"Hungary far right demands exit from EU, burns flag at rally"

And here's the human interest story:
"Hungarian Far-Right Lawmaker Meets Rabbi after Discovering Jewish Roots"